We're going to have to do some serious research on the Velocity of Money. This topic keeps coming up, but there doesn't appear to be a good discussion of the fact that Velocity can't be measured; it can only be calculated.
Furthermore, the fact that it exists (though some think it doesn't) doesn't mean it is the cause of inflation. Most posts appear to interpret it that we.
We at SBC believe velocity is a consequence of the psychology driven by theories expounded on by monetarism and Austrian economics. Until we get the in-depth analysis, we'll have to suffice for a few comments on the web.
See today's note on Seeking Alpha.
And another on Across the Curve.
And what appears to be one of the first arguments discussing Velocity and Monetarism. Mauldin has good analysis, but we don't think it discredits the view of V as a symptom rather than cause. Rather, it simply explains why there is a 12 to 18 month delay between monetary expansion and price expansion.
If you have more background and commentary, please put them into the comments so we can consider them in our analysis.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
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We have an updated discussion on the velocity angle. In Money Multiplier and Velocity we show how an increase in velocity is not dependent on debt growth, and could even occur during debt contraction. The premise is that this could occur as society learns to live within it's means.
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