Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Great Recession, Recovered

At 98.0 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in July was 4.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.4 percentage point to 79.3 percent, a rate 1.0 percentage point below its long-run (1972--2011) average.
Source: Federal Reserve

Statistically, the US has recovered from the Great Recession with regard to industrial production. So if we have all that unemployment, it must be service industry related, or industrial production is a whole lot more efficient, doing the same amount of work with less people.

That being the case, maybe equity profits and prices are not in a bubble after all.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Shoot, Can't Get Free Money for Leverage Next Year

On one level, the subject statement is reasonably true. On the other level, the entity that does have access can simply make a loan to another entity that doesn't, using discount rate as 'cost basis' and some absurdly small spread as 'retail pricing'. Then, being a majority or sole owner of this separate entity's equity, provide profits back to the mother ship as dividends from it's equity stake in 'Best Year Placement Assets Selection Systems'

Never mind, as long as politicians retain bragging rights, regulators have something to toast, and investment banks can keep making markets, we can all sit back and make money on the next bubble adventure of the global bastardization of capitalism.

Three federal financial regulatory agencies on Friday issued guidance clarifying that the effective date of section 716, the so-called Swaps Pushout provision, of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is July 16, 2013. The guidance is being issued by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency after receiving inquiries seeking clarification about the effective date. Section 716 prohibits certain types of Federal assistance, such as discount window lending and deposit insurance, for certain uses to a swaps entity, subject to specified exceptions, with respect to its swap, security-based swap, or other activity.
Source: Federal Reserve Press Release